It’s week seven of the PGA tour this week and with twelve of the world’s top twenty in action, the winner will certainly have to earn his $1.188 million pay day.
Last week’s winner, Phil Mickelson, unsurprisingly heads the market at 10/1, and although he has won on this course twice previously, I shall be looking for elsewhere for a bit more value in the each-way market.
First up is last year’s winner and last week’s 4th place finisher, Aaron Baddeley. I could go on about his 3 career wins and 30+ top ten finishes on the PGA Tour, but I think the first sentence is all you really need to know when there is a 30/1 beside his name.
Expect to hear the commentators talk about ‘good ball-striking’ a lot this week, with this course being set up to reward those especially blessed with this skill, meaning that those who usually rely on their putting or scrambling skills to find their edge on the field, might struggle this week.
With this in mind, for an 80/1 shot, I don’t think you will do much better than Ryan Moore. T4th here last year and a top 20 finish last time out mean that a repeat performance of last year may be on the cards and with 5 places paid, he is worth a small bet.
Finally, I’ll also have another small bet on Jason Dufner @ 55/1 simply because I think that his price is too big for a player ranked 34th in the world with results of T12th and T8th in his last two starts. Dufner also finished inside the top 30 here last time around and represents decent value at this price.
While researching this week, I really struggled to find any name that jumped out at me so I’ll keep my stakes relatively low and keep some money in the bank for a time when one does.
Running total for February 2011: + 45.5 pts
Running total for 2001: +45.5 pts
Bets this week:
1 pts e/w Aaron Baddeley to win @ 30/1 win (1/4 odds, 5 places)
0.5 pts e/w Ryan Moore @ 80/1 (1/4 odds, 5 places)
0.5 pts e/w Jason Dufner @ 55/1 (1/4 odds, 5 places)