WGC – Cadillac Championship Preview & Betting Advice
Last week we had a winning favourite in the shape of Rory McIlroy, who in doing so, not only lined many a punters pocket (ours included), but also claimed the world number one spot. Not bad for a 22 year old, but it does mean that his price this week is edging ever closer to the ‘win only’ bracket as he heads the market at 6/1.
I did, however, state last week that he is still worth betting e/w until he hits the 5/1 mark, and I’m sticking to my guns. Ten top-five finishes in his last eleven starts is what it is, and another top-five this week will see us sneak a small profit. Even if his celebrations and hectic schedule do catch up on him, we at least owe him this much. Throw in the fact that he had a top ten finish here last year when he was playing a lot worse, and the argument for backing him again is further justified. Probably not the most insightful tip you will ever hear, but there you go.
Another story from last week was Tiger Woods’ apparent return to form by finishing in a tie for second. Add this to his top-ten finish here last year and it’s no surprise that he is second in the market at 13/2. He could go well again this week, but the fact that he struggled last week until his final round of 62, makes him unattractive at that price.
Perhaps an overlooked story from last week was Lee Westwood’s fifth consecutive top five finish. Westwood was tied second for greens hit in regulation for the week and if he gets his putter going this week, he should be there or thereabouts come Sunday. At 14/1 his price offers much better value than that on offer for Woods and much like McIlroy was until recently, he is due a win. His top twenty finish here last year doesn’t exactly jump off the page, but this was down to a poor second round of 74 – two shots less would have seen him in the top ten.
Next up is Dustin Johnson at 25/1. Although probably still not fully recovered from his recent knee surgery, Johnson has still managed two top five finishes in his last two strokeplay events and he was unlucky not to win here last year, eventually finishing second to a very in-form Nick Watney. This one really could go either way, but at this price I think he represents some decent value.
Running total for 2012: +50.5 pts
Bets this week:
1 pts e/w Rory McIlroy to win @ 6/1 win (1/4 odds, 5 places)
1 pt e/w Lee Westwood @ 14/1 (1/4 odds, 5 places)
1pt e/w Dustin Johnson @25/1 (1/4 odds, 5 places)