Grand National sweepstake app

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Updated: April 12, 2012

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Once a year, punters looking to have a bet on the Grand National might not realise that the Grand National is a handicap meaning those with higher numbers are carrying more weight than those with lower numbers. The weight a horse must carry is based on the form they have shown to date (this year’s top weight is likely to be the Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Synchronised) but does it pay to go with the more proven Grand National runners or those who are yet to reach their peak?

One method of ruling certain weights out of potentially winning the Grand National is to throw out those deemed to be carrying ‘too much’ weight. Until recently, it was thought almost impossible for horses to win when carrying more than 11 stone (Hedgehunter was the first horse to do so in 2005 for more than 20 years) but then Don’t Push It completely smashed that stat when winning the race in 2010 with 11-5 on his back and no horse has carried more than that to victory in this race since Aintree specialist Red Rum won his fourth Grand National carrying 11-8 in 1977. Putting a line through horses carrying over 11-5 therefore looks a relatively safe approach, especially as the only horses in the last seven years to even place in the race off more than 11-5 have been horses to have at least placed off a lower weight in the Grand National before. This means Synchronised could struggle to even place this year whilst last year’s winner Ballabriggs can probably only place at best. Up to six other horses could also carry more than 11-5 depending on the final declarations. Click here for a list of Grand National horses by weight.
So what weight band has been most prolific in recent years in this race? By far the most likely weight band to throw up the winner based on this decade’s Grand Nationals is 10-7 to 11-0 inclusive, no less than 66% of the last twelve winners have come from that band of weights. That means just two winners since 2000 have carried more than 11 stone to victory and both of those were very well fancied runners. Hedgehunter won carrying 11-1 in 2005 and he was 7/1 whilst Don’t Push It won two years ago with 11-5 on his back and he went off at 10/1. The lower weights haven’t been brilliant either, only two winners have carried 11-6 or less which suggests the horses who might be the least classy in the Grand National haven’t fared well at all despite their perceived advantage from carrying less weight. Therefore, it looks best to concentrate on the middle group of horses.
There is a chance that slightly lower weights could be favoured this year though but that is very much dependent on the going on Grand National day. The lower weights could end up with more of an advantage should the ground turn out to be soft or worse on Saturday. The Grand National is usually run on good ground but when it has been softer than good in recent years, the lower weights have often outperformed their odds. The winners on the last three occasions when the ground has come up soft or heavy over the past decade or so have carried 10-12, 10-5 and 10-3 and should the ground be soft again this year, those are the sorts of weights to look out for. Use this filter on Grand-National-Guide.co.uk to pick your Grand National Winner based on weight and ground.
Once a year, punters looking to have a bet on the Grand National might not realise that the Grand National is a handicap meaning those with higher numbers are carrying more weight than those with lower numbers. The weight a horse must carry is based on the form they have shown to date (this year’s top weight is likely to be the Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Synchronised) but does it pay to go with the more proven Grand National runners or those who are yet to reach their peak?
One method of ruling certain weights out of potentially winning the Grand National is to throw out those deemed to be carrying ‘too much’ weight. Until recently, it was thought almost impossible for horses to win when carrying more than 11 stone (Hedgehunter was the first horse to do so in 2005 for more than 20 years) but then Don’t Push It completely smashed that stat when winning the race in 2010 with 11-5 on his back and no horse has carried more than that to victory in this race since Aintree specialist Red Rum won his fourth Grand National carrying 11-8 in 1977. Putting a line through horses carrying over 11-5 therefore looks a relatively safe approach, especially as the only horses in the last seven years to even place in the race off more than 11-5 have been horses to have at least placed off a lower weight in the Grand National before. This means Synchronised could struggle to even place this year whilst last year’s winner Ballabriggs can probably only place at best. Up to six other horses could also carry more than 11-5 depending on the final declarations. Click here for a list of Grand National horses by weight.
So what weight band has been most prolific in recent years in this race? By far the most likely weight band to throw up the winner based on this decade’s Grand Nationals is 10-7 to 11-0 inclusive, no less than 66% of the last twelve winners have come from that band of weights. That means just two winners since 2000 have carried more than 11 stone to victory and both of those were very well fancied runners. Hedgehunter won carrying 11-1 in 2005 and he was 7/1 whilst Don’t Push It won two years ago with 11-5 on his back and he went off at 10/1. The lower weights haven’t been brilliant either, only two winners have carried 11-6 or less which suggests the horses who might be the least classy in the Grand National haven’t fared well at all despite their perceived advantage from carrying less weight. Therefore, it looks best to concentrate on the middle group of horses.
There is a chance that slightly lower weights could be favoured this year though but that is very much dependent on the going on Grand National day. The lower weights could end up with more of an advantage should the ground turn out to be soft or worse on Saturday. The Grand National is usually run on good ground but when it has been softer than good in recent years, the lower weights have often outperformed their odds. The winners on the last three occasions when the ground has come up soft or heavy over the past decade or so have carried 10-12, 10-5 and 10-3 and should the ground be soft again this year, those are the sorts of weights to look out for. Use this filter on Grand-National-Guide.co.uk to pick your Grand National Winner based on weight and ground.

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