Preview: Connacht Rugby v Cardiff Rugby — EPCR Challenge Cup Last 16
The knockout stages of the EPCR Challenge Cup arrive this weekend, with Connacht Rugby welcoming Cardiff Rugby to The Sportsground on Saturday night (8pm). For Connacht, this is now their biggest game of the season after their URC play-off hopes were dashed. For Cardiff, it’s a chance to rescue a difficult year and cause an upset on the road.
Form Guide
Connacht suffered a disappointing 24-30 URC defeat to Munster last weekend in Castlebar, a result that officially ended their play-off ambitions. However, they dominated the pool stages of the Challenge Cup, winning all four matches, including a 28-19 away win over Cardiff in Round 4.
Cardiff, meanwhile, arrive in Galway after a narrow 20-19 defeat to Benetton Rugby in Italy last weekend. They qualified for the knockouts as the 16th seed, with just one win in the pool stages, but will take confidence from how close they pushed Connacht earlier this season. They were having an injury crisis at the time and should be stronger on Saturday.
Previous Meeting
The sides last met in Round 4 of the Challenge Cup pool stages, where Connacht emerged with a 28-19 victory at Cardiff Arms Park.
Head-to-Head Europe Averages 2024/25
| Category | Connacht Rugby | Cardiff Rugby |
|---|---|---|
| Tries | 6.2 | 3.2 |
| Points | 38.5 | 22.8 |
| Passes | 172.8 | 123 |
| Kicks in Play | 18.8 | 20 |
| Carries | 144 | 110.5 |
| Metres | 518.2 | 351.8 |
| Defenders Beaten | 28.8 | 17.8 |
| Clean Breaks | 9.5 | 8.8 |
| Offloads | 7.8 | 6.2 |
| Penalties Conceded | 10.8 | 10.5 |
| Yellow Cards | 0.5 | 0 |
| Missed Tackles | 27 | 19.2 |
| Turnovers Won | 4.5 | 8.8 |
| Lineout Success % | 91.5% | 79% |
| Scrum Success % | 91.7% | 91.7% |
Top Performers In Europe This Season
Connacht Rugby
- Top Points: Chay Mullins (20)
- Top Metres: Santiago Cordero (326)
- Top Carries: Santiago Cordero (50)
- Top Tackles: Paul Boyle (44)
- Top Tries: Chay Mullins (4)
- Top Turnovers Won: Shamus Hurley-Langton, Josh Murphy (2 each)
Cardiff Rugby
- Top Points: Josh Adams (15)
- Top Metres: Josh Adams (120)
- Top Carries: Alun Lawrence (35)
- Top Tackles: Teddy Williams (68)
- Top Tries: Josh Adams (3)
- Top Turnovers Won: Rey Lee-Lo (5)
Predicted Team News
Connacht have to freshen up their line-up following the Munster defeat, handing starts to Shayne Bolton, Matthew Devine need to start, with JJ coming in at ten.Â
Predicted Connacht Rugby Starting XV
- 1. Jordan Duggan
- 2. Dave Heffernan
- 3. Finlay Bealham
- 4. Joe Joyce
- 5. Darragh Murray
- 6. Josh Murphy
- 7. Shamus Hurley-Langton
- 8. Sean Jansen
- 9. Matthew Devine
- 10. JJ Hanrahan
- 11. Finn Treacy
- 12. Bundee Aki
- 13. Hugh Gavin
- 14. Shayne Bolton
- 15. Mack Hansen
Replacements
- 16. Dylan Tierney-Martin
- 17. Denis Buckley
- 18. Jack Aungier
- 19. Niall Murray/ Oisin Dowling
- 20. Paul Boyle
- 21. Ben Murphy/Caolin Blade
- 22. Josh Ioane/Cathal Forde/David Hawkshaw
- 23. Piers O’Conor
What’s at Stake
Connacht enter as the No.1 seed after an unbeaten pool campaign. Victory will guarantee them a home quarter-final against either Racing 92 or Perpignan.
Cardiff, seeded 16th, will travel to Galway as underdogs but will look to make life uncomfortable for Connacht — as they did in the pool stages.
Match Facts
- Connacht average the most carries (144) and metres (518.2) per game in the competition.
- They also lead the tournament in successful 22m entries (9.5 per game).
- Cardiff made the most tackles (646) in the pool stages and are one of only three sides yet to receive a card.
- Cardiff’s Rey Lee-Lo leads the competition in turnovers won (5).
Verdict
The statistics heavily favour Connacht, who have been far more consistent and dynamic in attack this season. Cardiff’s defensive resilience and breakdown threat could trouble the hosts, but the quality and depth of Connacht’s squad — especially at home — should see them through.
Prediction: Connacht by 10+
